The Bloomberg Effect

Let's assume that Bloomberg is going to make an independent run for the Presidency and uses a good chunk of his personal $5 billion fortune to finance it.

Which side does this hurt the most?

While he has been a Republican for a few years his tenets are generally moderate to liberal. He's pro-gay marriage, anti-gun, and has signed into law in NYC several laws that would be considered "nanny state".

Something else to consider: He was elected by switching parties and then riding Rudy's coattails. If he's now going to go head-to-head with Rudy, if Rudy gets the nod, do folks gravitate from Rudy to Michael? Or do they stick with Rudy?

Here's my take: Bloomberg would become the Democratic Party's version of Ross Perot. Perot was very strongly pro-business and I think it's pretty clear that he drew more Republican votes than Democratic. Arguably he cost Bush Sr. the 1992 election.

Bloomberg may draw more heavily from moderate Democrats and independents than from the GOP depending on how moderate the GOP nominee is. If someone hardcore like Thompson or Romney gets the nod, Bloomberg picks up moderate Republican votes. I don't see it if Rudy is the choice.

On the Democratic side, I think Bloomberg would be either Hillary's or Obama's worst nightmare. Forget Edwards, snowballs chance in hell there.

You might end up with an election night split of 35% Dem, 40% GOP, 25% Ind. (Bloomberg).

Or maybe, if the electorate continues to be disgusted with Congress and the White House, he could actually win.

Ideas? Thoughts?